Understanding Evo Morales´ downfall

Javier Paz García

The path to 14 years in power

When Evo Morales won his first election in 2005, the Bolivian constitution then in place did not allow consecutive terms in office. Under that constitution, he should have stepped down in 2011. However, his government convened a Constitutional Assembly and changed the constitution. The new constitution allowed two consecutive terms and indicated explicitly that the previous term, the one that Morales started in 2006 would count towards that limit. Therefore, under the new constitution, he could only have stayed in office until 2015. In order to get support for the approval of the new constitution, Morales himself made a public promise that the period 2009-2015 would be his last term and that he would not seek reelection after that. During his time in power, Evo Morales placed party loyals in all the State institutions. In 2013, one of these institutions, the Constitutional Tribunal, responsible for interpreting and upholding the constitution, ruled that Morales first term in office did not count towards the two terms limit, even though the constitution explicitly said so. This rule allowed Morales to run for his third term in office, and again he promised that it would be his last. In 2016, now in his third term, Morales called a referendum to ask the people to change the constitution again to allow him to run for president again. The referendum took place on February 21st (21F) and he lost it. But the Constitutional Tribunal came to the rescue again and in 2017 ruled that not allowing Morales to run for office would be a violation of human rights, therefore eliminating any term limits, a rule clearly against the constitution.

The 2019 election

Through legal shenanigans, Morales was a candidate again in the 2019 election, expecting to get a fourth term in office. The Electoral Tribunal, was controlled by people chosen by the MAS party. The night of the election the Tribunal stopped the count, only to restart it almost 24 hours later and with a clear change of tendency, showing Morales as winner, without the need for a run off between the two most voted candidates. This led to protests all over the country, that initially only demanded a run off.

Peaceful protests and violent retaliation

 The protests started in the province of Santa Cruz where the people took to the streets and paralyzed activities. The protests where pacific, without destroying public or private property or injuring anyone. As more people joined the protests all over the country, the MAS party organized groups to confront protesters. For example, in La Paz miners took to the street to show support for the president, it was later shown that in reality they were public servants dressed as miners. In Montero a confrontation occurred between MAS supporters and protesters where two people died by gun shots, both protesters against the election results. The police investigations point towards Daysi Choque, and elected representative to Congress by the MAS party, as the organizer of the attack. In total until Morales´ resignation four people died, all of them protesters against Morales, and all in the hands of Morales supporters. 

The role of the Police and Armed Forces

The police forces mainly took a neutral stance, letting the people protests as long as they were pacific. In Cochabamba there were actions of repression against protests led the police and mobs organized by the MAS party. Finally, in Cochabamba the police forces refused to follow orders from the government to help Morales´ supporters and repress peaceful protesters. This mutiny lead to police forces all over the country to do the same. These mutinies where led by low level police officers, not by commanders. The Armed Forces refuse to repress civilians but did not take the streets to oust the President, either.

The path to resignation

As more evidence of the election fraud was being uncovered, the demand escalated from a run off to repeating the election with a new Electoral Tribunal. Then with the dead of protesters in the hands of Morales supporters, calls for resignation of President Morales started to be heard.  On Monday, November 11^th, the audit team from OAS issued a report indicating that there were serious irregularities and that the elections´ results were not trustworthy. 

With the OAS report, Morales administration lost all credibility. He and his party had put in place all the members of the Electoral Tribunal. For a new and fair election it was necessary to change those members. But if Evo stayed in power and with control of Congress, he would be in a position to again designate the members of the Electoral Tribunal as he wished. Furthermore, with Morales´ record of reneging on his promises and doing everything within his reach to stay in power, even against the constitution and the will of the people, expressed in the 21F referendum, there was no assurance a fair election would be possible. The vast majority of the people demanded his resignation.

Was it a coup d`etat?

Evo Morales has called his exit a coup d`etat. Let´s see some facts. Not a single shot was used to force Morales´ resignation; the four people that died by gunshot during the protests were protesters against Morales. Not a single supporter of Morales was shot or died during the protests, before his resignation. The Armed and Police Forces did not support the protests, they simply refused to repress peaceful protesters. There were millions of people protesting in the street all over the country, making it the largest protest in the history of Bolivia. There were regional leaders with different backgrounds, with little coordination among them before the protests started and with no intention to seize control of government. Luis Fernando Camacho, the most prominent leader, is the head of Comité pro Santa Cruz, a non profit organization that promotes the development of the province of Santa Cruz; Marco Pumari, has a similar position in Potosí; in La Paz the protests where lead by Waldo Albarracín, the Chancellor of the local public university and former Human Rights advocate. None of them took the presidency or intended to do so. After Morales´ resignation the presidency was taken by a member of the Senate, Jeanine Áñez, following the constitutional mandate. Furthermore, the new president will be in power for a few months, until the Electoral Tribunal is recomposed and fair elections take place. With all these facts, it is hard to categorize this as a coup d`etat.This was a civil movement that involved the active participation of the vast majority of society and that demanded that the will of the people be respected. 

Santa Cruz de la Sierra, 16/11/19

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